IIF: Global Outlook

The Institute of International Finance Inc, has released its global economic outlook in 2009. The full view can be accessed from the www.iif.com to gain access to Global Economic Forecasts and Financial Market Forecasts.
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PRESS
Press Releases
Further Declines in GDP Seen for 2009 for Leading Industrial Countries, But Some Gains Likely Towards Year’s End
“Comprehensive, coherent and globally coordinated policies are essential to strengthen financial markets and revive growth,” says IIF Managing Director Charles Dallara.

Washington DC, December 18, 2008 — Steep declines in real gross domestic product are likely in the current quarter and in the next quarter in the United States, the Euro-zone countries and in Japan. Overall, 2009 will see falls in output in these countries and rising unemployment, but a revival of growth may start in the late summer of next year, forecast the economists at the Institute of International Finance. World GDP is expected to decline for the first time in recent history in 2009 with a projected fall of 0.4 percent, after a 2 percent gain this year.

Indonesia Economic Outlook 2009 (1): Inflation 2-4%

This is my first posting on the Indonesia Economic Outlook 2009 series. I write them in several postings since it suit to the blog reader. I will make them simple, easy to catch, and acceptable. Reader can propose topic to these series if they are not covered yet. This series will cover Inflation, BI Rate, Currency Rate, and Oil Price. Now, let’s start with the inflation.

BI Rate Decreases to 9.25%

Dua minggu lalu, BI menurunkan suku bunga SBI. Penurunan BI Rate ini telah diperkirakan sebelumnya, hanya saja BI kelihatannya masih ragu pada efek yang akan ditimbulkan akibat penurunan BI Rate ini. Namun, apa yang menjadi ketakutan BI sepertinya tidak terjadi. Dimana kurs Rp malah semakin menguat dan IHSG juga naik. Sebagaimana disampaikan banyak ahli ekonomi, ketakutan BI akan dampak negatif penurunan suku bunga tidak beralasan dikarenakan pasar sedang lesu yang malah membutuhkan penurunan suku bunga. Selain itu, jumlah uang asing juga sudah menurun jauh sehingga tidak akan memiliki dampak negatif yang besar.
Hal ini tentu saja didukung oleh kebijakan BI yang telah dikeluarkan beberapa waktu yang lalu dengan bekerja sama dengan Departemen Keuangan. Secara keseluruhan, kebijakan pemerintah sudah sangat mendukung guna mencapai penurunan harga yang berujung pada inflasi. Dengan pola inflasi normal seperti pada tahun 2006 dan 2007 maka saya prediksikan inflasi bulan Desember 2008 tidak akan melebihi 0,4%. Dengan pola yang sama juga saya memprediksikan inflasi tahun 2009 sebesar 3% (+/-1%) atau rentang 2-4%. Bagaimana analisanya akan disampaikan pada postingan berikutnya.

Saran, kalau mau ambil kredit sebaiknya tunggu pertengahan tahun 2009.

Madoff & Pasar Modal Indonesia

Skandal keuangan terbesar saat ini sudah dipegang si Madoff. Resumenya sangat menggoda para investor baik institusi maupun ritel dengan skala besar. Bahkan korban investasinya meliputi investor dari beberapa negara di eropa selain di US, asal si Madoff. Madoff ini dianggap hebat karena mampu memberikan imbal hasil 10% selama bertahun-tahun walaupun beberapa meragukan strategi investasi dan auditor yang mengaudit laporan keuangan yang didistribusikan kepada para investor. Sejauh ini sudah teridentifikasi kerugian sebesar US$50 milyar, dan kerugian ini mulai diakui beberapa institusi keuangan besar dunia.

BUMI: Back on Track

I say so since the investors were in turbulence last week. Last week, there was news that George Soros and other two hedge funds are collecting coal industry stock including BUMI. Also, the investors were waiting on whether the Bakrie & Brothers Tbk BNBR) Extraordinary General Shareholder Meeting in December 2008. Rumor stated the company proposed an extension for more than a week. Investors’ feeling had been shaken as there is no news on who is Odickson Finance SA, the biggest creditor to BNBR.  Odickson hold more than 80% of BNBR debt. While investors aware of Bakrie Group was buying back its shares, the situation was changed as the Odickson got paid by Northstar Pacific Partners. No information how the transaction was done, neither how BNBR considered its buy back action.

Back to BUMI, reading newspaper which told BUMI had raised its long term debt for 10000% for the last one year. This is logic since BUMI did some actions like Herald Resources acquisition. I would like to share its Company Report Summary for the first half year of 2008.

For those reasons, I don’t believe if the investors still pay their interest to this stock. May be, this share will be back to the low price stock category. Who knows?